Entries by nadhifh20

Forgotten: ASEAN’s Vision on Disaster Management

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It was merely three months ago when Indonesians headed to the polls to elect their municipal leaders in the 2024 local elections. As many as 207 million eligible voters were expected to vote in 37 provinces, 415 regencies and 93 cities (Yuniarto, 2024). Yet, millions of voters were barred from exercising their democratic right due to an unanticipated disaster. In the province of North Sumatra, hundreds of polling stations in certain areas were flooded and, consequently, unable to operate. As a result, the Indonesian Election Commission had to schedule revotes in 110 polling stations across North Sumatra (Nefi, 2024). In September 2024, the Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics (BMKG) issued a warning that earthquakes from two megathrust zones, namely the Sunda Strait Megathrust and the Mentawai-Siberut Megathrust are imminent (Dewi, 2024). The Head of the Agency, Daryono, stated that these two zones have not experienced earthquakes for more than two centuries and the buildup of stress between the plates will inevitably lead to a great earthquake. These two situations provoke an alarming question to Southeast Asian countries – in this case, governments: what is the plan?

History of ASEAN Disaster Management Strategy

Although the disasters have ended or have yet to come, the issue remains alive and kicking. Southeast Asia is known to be one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world, with 40% of its population having experienced a natural hazard in the past five years (Vigers, 2024). Last year, on December 26, 2024, marked the 20th anniversary of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, which devastated thousands of communities in Indonesia and Thailand. Ever since this tragedy, Southeast Asian nations have made significant progress to improve disaster management systems, such as establishing responsive governance, allocating disaster risk and contingency funds, and strengthening regional collaboration (Agbisit, 2024). The third point is particularly critical as the transboundary nature of disasters requires an enduring collaboration between states. ASEAN, as the only regional organization in Southeast Asia, is key to achieving a staunch and effective disaster management strategy.

There is no denying that ASEAN has achieved substantial advancements in terms of disaster management. After the 2004 tsunami, member states signed the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) and installed the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre). These measures laid the foundation for the organization’s disaster management coordination and schemes (Djalante & Ponto, 2024). They have also prompted the community to kickstart other programs to better prepare for future natural hazards, such as establishing the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) and Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA). All of these measures are executed with the purpose of achieving the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management.

The Successes and Drawbacks

ASEAN has been applauded by the international community for its accomplishments in learning the lessons of 2004. For instance, the 2023 World Risk Poll reported that 67% of Southeast Asian adults believe they could protect themselves and their families from a future disaster. Furthermore, Caballero-Anthony et. al. (2023) argued that ASEAN has proven to be instrumental in supporting member states’ disaster relief and humanitarian operations, especially during the 2008 Nargis Cyclone and the 2018 Central Sulawesi earthquakes. ASEAN’s preparedness in disaster management has arguably surpassed that of North America. In fact, it is logical to believe that these triumphs may have propelled ASEAN onto the pinnacle of world leadership in disaster diplomacy.

While ASEAN may currently be hit by a “tsunami” of appraisals, one must not overlook the drawbacks that follow. Recently, it has become more obvious that ASEAN is regressing in its efforts to achieve disaster management targets. Firstly, according to the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2022, ASEAN is falling short across nearly all indicators in terms of reaching the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction targets. Secondly, although ASEAN has adopted numerous frameworks to tackle the underlying issues, national governments seem to lack the leadership to implement them, even occasionally diverge from them (Caballero-Anthony, et. al., 2023). This challenge is further exacerbated by ASEAN’s non-intervention principle, which hinders any criticisms towards the actions of its member states (Arumbinang, 2022). Thirdly, despite efforts to develop a quick-response system for disasters, ASEAN still lacks the sense of urgency to react to such life-threatening situations. Khotimah & Putra (2019) highlight the worrying implications of ASEAN’s treatment towards post-natural disaster situations as an opportunity to improve quality of life rather than a threat to security and peace. These circumstances put ASEAN’s approaches and institutional structures into question. The author stresses that those liabilities must be of concern to ASEAN policymakers as failure to mitigate them could possibly destroy ASEAN’s global reputation in disaster management.

A Forgotten Issue and What Should Be Done About It?

As the deadline for accomplishing the targets of ASEAN Vision 2025 is approaching, one must observe the subsequent steps that should be taken. On October 11, 2024, Malaysia, as the 2025 ASEAN Chairman, unveiled the theme of ASEAN Chairmanship 2025, “Inclusivity and Sustainability” (MFA Malaysia, 2024). At first glance, one might think the discussion on further actions to complement the 2023 ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on Sustainable Resilience – a declaration on disaster management and environment – will be included. However, topics on disaster management have been discovered to be unprioritized and overshadowed by other crises, such as the South China Sea dispute and the Myanmar Civil War. In addition, a Second Donald Trump Presidency has caused several concerns about future trade relations and the prospect of another US-China trade war.

ASEAN would have to brace itself for a challenging ride this year. As much as it is critical to resolve unsettled issues, it is also vital not to disregard the responsibility to maintain initial successes, specifically in disaster diplomacy. The author believes that there are two ways to address this matter. Firstly, Malaysia has to set a precedent for succeeding ASEAN chairmen to prioritize disaster management as an annual priority to boost development on this issue. Secondly, instead of continuing the path of consensus-driven diplomacy, ASEAN must show clarity and utilize a more assertive approach in terms of realigning member states’ disaster management policies with ASEAN’s framework in order to cement unity on this issue.

The never-ending threats of disaster have continually put Southeast Asian people in danger. The recent floods in Indonesia and the megathrust earthquake warning should be a wake-up call for ASEAN not to view human lives lightly. That is why reinvigorating ASEAN’s disaster management blueprint is fundamental to solidifying ASEAN as not just a sidekick but a leader in disaster diplomacy.

 

References

Agbisit, J. B. (2024, October 8). 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: A Turning Point in Disaster Resilience. The ASEAN Magazine. https://theaseanmagazine.asean.org/article/2004-indian-ocean-tsunami-a-turning-point-in-disaster-resilience/

AKCF. (n.d.). ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre). ASEAN Korea Cooperation Fund. https://www.aseanrokfund.com/our-partners/asean-coordinating-centre-for-humanitarian-assistance-on-disaster-management-aha-centre

Arumbinang, M. H. (2022). Problems and Dilemmas: ASEAN Commitments in Disaster Management. Indonesian Comparative Law Review, 4(1), 17–25. https://doi.org/10.18196/iclr.v4i1.13219

Caballero-Anthony, M., Cook, A. D. B., & Lassa, J. (2023, March 2). Disaster Management in Southeast Asia: 20 Years of Progress and Challenges. S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/nts/disaster-management-in-southeast-asia-20-years-of-progress-and-challenges/?doing_wp_cron=1677830612.6909389495849609375000#.ZAG5_HZBzIW

Dewi, I. R. (2024, December 30). BMKG Sebut Gempa Megathrust RI Hanya Tunggu Waktu, Ini Zona Merahnya. CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/tech/20241230110310-37-599471/bmkg-sebut-gempa-megathrust-ri-hanya-tunggu-waktu-ini-zona-merahnya

Djalante, R. & Ponto, J. (2024, October 8). ASEAN’s Strengthened Disaster Preparedness and Response Framework. The ASEAN Magazine. https://theaseanmagazine.asean.org/article/aseans-strengthened-disaster-preparedness-and-response-framework/

Ing, L. Y. & Vadilla, Y. (2024). How A Second Trump Presidency Will Impact ASEAN Economy. Jakarta Globe. https://jakartaglobe.id/opinion/how-a-second-trump-presidency-will-impact-asean-economy

Khotimah, N. H. & Putra, K. I. (2019, October 10). A Resilient ASEAN?: ASEAN and Resilience in Natural Disaster. ASEAN Studies Center Universitas Gadjah Mada. https://asc.fisipol.ugm.ac.id/2019/10/10/a-resilient-asean-asean-and-resilience-in-natural-disaster/

MFA Malaysia. (2024). LAUNCHING CEREMONY OF THE LOGO AND THEME OF ASEAN-MALAYSIA CHAIRMANSHIP 2025. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Malaysia. https://www.kln.gov.my/web/guest/-/launching-ceremony-of-the-logo-and-theme-of-asean-malaysia-chairmanship-2025-22-october-2024

‌Natalia, T. (2024, September 21). Gempa Megathrust Tinggal Tunggu Waktu, Ini 13 Wilayah Paling Rawan! CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20240921144456-128-573543/gempa-megathrust-tinggal-tunggu-waktu-ini-13-wilayah-paling-rawan

Nefi, A. (2024, November 28). Banjir Saat Pilkada, 110 TPS di Sumut akan Gelar Pemungutan Suara Susulan. Tempo. https://www.tempo.co/politik/banjir-saat-pilkada-110-tps-di-sumut-akan-gelar-pemungutan-suara-susulan-1174211

Ramzi, M. H. (2024, October 25). Why 2025 Is a Make or Break Year for ASEAN Unity. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2024/10/why-2025-is-a-make-or-break-year-for-asean-unity/

Tan, A. & Louis, Y. M. (2024, October 16). Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship is a catalyst, not a panacea. Lowy Institute. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/malaysia-s-asean-chairmanship-catalyst-not-panacea

Vigers, B. (2024, August 15). Southeast Asia Feels Prepared for Disasters. Gallup. https://news.gallup.com/poll/648242/southeast-asia-feels-prepared-disasters.aspx

‌Yuniarto, T. (2024, August 29). Pilkada Serentak 2024: Jumlah Pemilih Potensial, Anggaran, dan Tahapan. Kompaspedia. https://kompaspedia.kompas.id/baca/paparan-topik/pilkada-serentak-2024-alur-data-dan-tren-sosial-politik

 

Short Biography:

Daniel Emmanuel Situmeang is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations at Universitas Gadjah Mada. He can be reached through e-mail at danielemmanuelsitumeang@mail.ugm.ac.id.

The Getaway Car Presidency: Prabowo, Power, and the Road to Nowhere

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Drivin’ the getaway car

We were flyin’, but we’d never get far

Taylor Swift’s Getaway Car is a song about high-speed betrayals, thrilling escapes, and the eventual realization that running from one mess often leads to another. It’s a song of choices that feels exhilarating at first—until you realize the road leads to nowhere. If there’s a song that best describes the socio-political condition of Indonesia under Prabowo Subianto’s presidency, this might be it.

Since taking office, Prabowo’s government has moved swiftly, reshaping policies, consolidating power, and making bold budgetary decisions. A unique paradox marks his leadership: while Indonesia witnesses growing civil society protests against military influence in governance, education budget cuts, and creeping authoritarianism, there remains a silent majority that supports his administration. Much like the song’s protagonist, who realizes too late that they were part of a doomed ride, Indonesia finds itself on a high-speed political journey with no clear exit strategy.

This paradox stems from diverging perceptions of stability and progress. On one hand, student groups, academics, and activists are raising alarms over increasing state control and the erosion of democratic freedoms. The return of military figures to civilian positions is seen as a step backward, echoing the days before Reformasi, when the military wielded extensive political and economic power. Education cuts have fueled anger among the youth, who see them as a sign of misplaced priorities. Meanwhile, concerns over media restrictions and the suppression of dissent paint a picture of creeping authoritarianism.

On the other hand, Prabowo’s supporters—primarily from rural communities, the working class, and nationalist circles—view his leadership as a necessary counterbalance to instability. To them, military governance represents discipline, order, and strength. Programs like free school meals, ambitious infrastructure projects, and nationalist rhetoric reinforce the image of a strong and protective leader. The silent majority, therefore, remains largely content, believing that protests are exaggerated or instigated by elites who fail to understand the realities of common citizens.

However, as history has shown, such dynamics rarely remain static. Public patience can wane as economic pressures mount, and once-loyal supporters can become disillusioned when promises fail to materialize. The question remains: Will this silent majority continue to ride along, or will they eventually recognize that they, too, are passengers in a political getaway car heading toward an uncertain destination?

 

The illusion of a promising start

It was the best of times, the worst of crimes

I struck a match and blew your mind

But I didn’t mean it, and you didn’t see it

In the song, Swift describes a relationship that begins with a thrilling, rebellious escape—only for things to spiral out of control. Prabowo’s presidency mirrors this, starting with high public enthusiasm. He promised stability, security, and economic transformation, particularly in defense and infrastructure.

His high hopes, particularly with his promises of economic transformation, national security, and military professionalism, offer a promising future for Indonesia. But with these promises came drastic moves. His administration has aggressively expanded the role of the military in civilian governance, reminiscent of Indonesia’s Suharto-era “dual function” (Dwifungsi) doctrine. The passing of a law allowing active military officers to take civilian posts marks a fundamental shift away from the democratic reforms of Reformasi, Indonesia’s post-1998 transition to democracy. Critics argue that this undermines civilian oversight and could open the door to unchecked military influence. Much like the song’s theme—where the excitement of an escape fades into inevitable disillusionment—the government’s bold moves (e.g., militarization of civilian roles, budget reallocations) may initially seem strategic but risk long-term consequences.

 

When the civil society hits the brakes…

We were jet-set, Bonnie and Clyde

Until I switched to the other side, to the other side

It’s no surprise I turned you in

‘Cause us traitors never win

Indonesia’s streets have not been quiet. Large-scale protests—most notably the “Dark Indonesia” movement led by students and educators—have erupted in response to Prabowo’s sweeping budget reallocations. With education and public works taking a hit to fund other priorities, including military spending and nationalistic programs, young Indonesians have voiced strong opposition, with much of the protest activity shifting to digital platforms such as social media (mostly Instagram and X) and online petitions. This trend reflects both the increasing restrictions on physical demonstrations and the changing nature of activism in a digitally connected era. While digital protests allow for wider participation and international awareness, their effectiveness is debated.

The silent majority, on the other hand, often less engaged in online discourse, may remain indifferent or even skeptical, viewing these protests as disconnected from their immediate concerns. The government’s response? A mix of crackdowns and attempts to discredit activists, reminiscent of past authoritarian tactics. In Papua, activists continue to be arrested for challenging military actions, while press freedom faces subtle yet significant restrictions. Civil society movements have raised concerns that the space for democratic expression is shrinking. The more the government tightens its grip, the more resistance builds.

 

The “silent majority”

And a circus ain’t a love story, and now we’re both sorry

Yet, despite the vocal opposition, Prabowo still enjoys broad support, particularly from rural communities, working-class citizens, and nationalist groups who see him as a stabilizing force. His appeal is rooted in a blend of strongman leadership, military discipline, and populist economic programs such as free school meals. Additionally, state-controlled media and nationalist rhetoric have played a significant role in shaping public perception, reinforcing his image as a protector of Indonesian sovereignty and progress. Many in this silent majority remain skeptical of digital protests, viewing them as disconnected from their daily struggles and driven by urban elites. Particularly among working-class Indonesians and rural communities. This is the “silent majority” who see his leadership as a promise of stability in an increasingly uncertain world. Much like the song’s protagonist, who is swept up in the thrill of the escape, many of Prabowo’s supporters believe they are on the right path—until reality catches up.

Populist policies like free school meals resonate deeply with this demographic. The government has skillfully framed its actions as necessary for national progress, and state-controlled narratives help reinforce this belief. But as inflation rises, budget cuts affect essential services, and democratic spaces shrink, will the silent majority start feeling like they’ve been taken for a ride?

 

No way out

I knew it from the first Old Fashioned, we were cursed

We never had a shotgun shot in the dark

Indonesia’s governance under Prabowo faces a potential turning point: Will it continue down a path of securitization and centralized power, or will opposition forces grow strong enough to change course? The song’s theme of inevitable downfall mirrors the uncertainty of how sustainable Prabowo’s approach will be in the long run. History suggests that unchecked control, especially when met with rising discontent, rarely ends smoothly. While the administration appears to be in control, the pushback from civil society and increasing economic pressures may eventually force a reckoning. Just like the song’s characters, who think they are free but are actually heading toward their downfall, the government’s trajectory might lead to a moment where the realities of governance catch up, forcing either reform or crisis.

Just as Getaway Car ends with betrayal and abandonment, the long-term trajectory of Prabowo’s governance remains uncertain. Will Indonesia continue down this road, or will the silent majority eventually slam the brakes?

One thing is certain: The ride is far from over. And in politics, as in Swift’s lyrics, high-speed escapes often lead straight into another trap.

 

 

Short Biography:

Tunggul Wicaksono is a Research Manager at ASEAN Studies Center, Universitas Gadjah Mada. He can be reached through e-mail at tunggulwicaksono@ugm.ac.id.

ASEAN Studies Center – Japan Foundation Essay Competition

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Background

The Indo-Pacific region faces a complex and evolving landscape of strategic, economic, and security challenges. While Japan and ASEAN have maintained a longstanding partnership characterized by cooperation in areas such as trade, infrastructure development, security, and cultural exchange, the current geopolitical climate necessitates a renewed focus on collaborative efforts. This need is amplified by emerging regional dynamics, including geopolitical tensions and economic shifts, requiring innovative and adaptable policies to ensure stability and prosperity. These evolving dynamics demand fresh perspectives on how Japan and ASEAN can jointly navigate these challenges and maintain a stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.

The existing partnership between Japan and ASEAN provides a strong foundation for enhanced collaboration. However, the dynamic nature of the Indo-Pacific necessitates a modernization of these cooperative efforts. The region requires innovative and adaptable policies to address its multifaceted challenges, ranging from traditional security concerns to non-traditional threats like climate change and pandemics. Furthermore, fostering deeper understanding and dialogue among future leaders is crucial for ensuring the long-term success of Japan-ASEAN cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The need for creative policy recommendations and strategic insights that can influence diplomatic and economic strategies in the region is more critical than ever.

This essay competition directly addresses these needs by providing a platform for students, young professionals, and scholars to engage in high-level discussions on international relations and geopolitics within the Indo-Pacific context. By encouraging participants to offer actionable solutions and fresh perspectives, the project fosters a forward-looking approach to addressing regional issues. This initiative serves as a catalyst for promoting collaborative dialogue between Japan and ASEAN, encouraging participants to analyze the importance of this partnership in achieving shared goals like peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. This competition aims to empower the next generation of leaders by giving them a platform to contribute their thoughts and solutions to real-world challenges.

Key Topics

  1. Strategic Security and Maritime Cooperation: How Japan and ASEAN can cooperate to ensure peace, stability, and security in the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning maritime disputes, freedom of navigation, and regional defense cooperation.
  2. Economic Partnership and Development: Exploring ways Japan and ASEAN can strengthen economic ties through trade, investment, and infrastructure projects, especially under the framework of Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy (FOIP).
  3. Environmental and Sustainable Development: Investigating joint initiatives to address environmental challenges such as climate change, disaster preparedness, and resource management in the Indo-Pacific region.
  4. Cultural Exchange and People-to-People Connectivity: Assessing how collaboration in education, tourism, and cultural diplomacy can foster stronger ties between ASEAN countries and Japan.

General Terms and Conditions

  1. The participant is an active university student from Japan, and all ASEAN member states. A student identification card or other supporting document is needed to prove active status. 
  2. Participants can be an individual or a group consisting of a maximum of 3 persons. 
  3. Participants are encouraged and expected to read the entirety of the guidelines provided in the ASC website.

List of Research and Development Funds:

  1. Impact Grant (1st Place): IDR 3,000,000
  2. Innovation Grant (2nd Place): IDR 2,000,000
  3. Seed Grant (3rd Place): IDR 1,000,000

The awarded Research and Development Funds, in the form of grants, can be used to support the author/team’s continued research, development, and implementation of their innovative solution.

Essay Guidelines

  1. The essay must be original work and has not been published in other publication platforms.
  2. The essay must align with the key topics listed above.
  3. The essay must be written in American English.
  4. Font: Cambria, font size: 12, line spacing: 1.15, spacing before: 0 pt, spacing after: 12 pt.
  5. Full essay length: 1,500 – 2,000 words. Excluding footnotes and references.
  6. The author notes that the essay can not be withdrawn at any condition once it is accepted by the committee.
  7. Essays must follow a formal academic format, including an introduction, main body, and conclusion, with proper citations and references for all sources.
  8. The essay will be curated and published by the ASEAN Studies Center for academic purposes.

Submission and Competition Technicalities 

  1. Submission is to be submitted through ugm.id/ASCECJF25
  • File naming should be Last name_Essay [E.g. Saputra_Essay (individual) or Saputra, Firhansyah & Ashari_Essay (groups).
  • The submitted essay should be in PDF format.
  • The latest submission to be made is by Sunday, the 19th of January 2025. 
  • One representative is sufficient for group submission to submit the essay.
  1. Three of the best essays will be selected to continue to the next stage. This will be announced on the 5th of March 2025.
  2. The top three winners will be announced on the 5th of March 2025.
  3. The winners are asked to present their essays during the seminar and awarding ceremony. 

Submit Your Essay here: ugm.id/ASCECJF25

Timeline

Contact Person

Mr. Tunggul Wicaksono

Research Manager, ASEAN Studies Center Universitas Gadjah Mada

tunggulwicaksono@ugm.ac.id